Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
